* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 61 65 70 74 74 80 84 85 84 82 80 V (KT) LAND 55 57 61 65 70 74 74 80 84 85 84 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 64 69 77 81 80 79 78 77 74 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 9 11 12 12 15 18 18 27 28 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -5 -2 1 4 -2 -4 2 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 241 262 261 295 343 6 7 336 330 303 298 282 275 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 153 154 154 151 146 144 142 139 136 129 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 133 133 130 124 118 116 117 118 116 108 102 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 44 43 43 42 43 43 48 44 39 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 23 24 23 27 30 32 33 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -43 -37 -44 -59 -32 -24 -34 -21 -8 2 33 33 200 MB DIV 0 1 -3 5 -7 -2 -9 0 -5 41 17 34 14 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 1 0 7 10 10 9 14 5 LAND (KM) 1783 1747 1719 1713 1712 1666 1603 1564 1533 1527 1471 1401 1327 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.4 30.0 30.8 31.3 31.8 32.3 32.9 33.6 34.6 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.4 53.3 54.0 54.7 55.5 55.8 55.6 54.9 53.3 50.6 48.4 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 7 4 3 3 6 9 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 29 30 30 26 22 20 15 14 9 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 19. 25. 29. 30. 29. 27. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.6 51.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.76 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.59 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.44 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 441.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 19.6% 12.6% 12.4% 10.1% 10.3% 17.2% Logistic: 6.4% 20.0% 12.3% 9.3% 0.0% 4.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 14.2% 8.6% 7.3% 3.4% 5.1% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/27/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 61 65 70 74 74 80 84 85 84 82 80 18HR AGO 55 54 58 62 67 71 71 77 81 82 81 79 77 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 60 64 64 70 74 75 74 72 70 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 54 54 60 64 65 64 62 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT