* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 85 86 87 81 78 72 65 63 60 59 V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 85 86 87 81 78 72 65 63 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 84 86 87 85 82 80 74 71 69 68 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 4 2 6 9 12 8 7 5 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 255 260 251 163 129 92 99 95 87 64 97 88 33 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.2 26.4 25.9 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 140 138 135 137 129 124 133 129 128 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 55 51 46 46 45 43 40 39 38 41 44 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 24 23 24 23 21 22 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 13 15 19 35 53 55 63 57 61 48 45 45 41 200 MB DIV 28 36 29 13 22 5 -11 -12 -4 -20 -13 8 21 700-850 TADV 8 5 7 6 6 7 7 -3 0 -3 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 902 956 1018 1090 1167 1361 1550 1754 1988 2124 1813 1564 1358 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.6 18.6 18.3 18.1 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.9 118.9 120.0 121.0 123.4 126.0 128.7 131.7 134.6 137.6 140.0 142.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 14 14 13 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 9 13 13 7 5 17 1 8 14 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 4. 6. 5. 1. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 10. 11. 12. 6. 3. -3. -10. -12. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.9 116.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.25 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.86 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 598.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.06 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.73 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 23.5% 32.0% 23.7% 18.4% 17.4% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 15.9% 13.0% 10.2% 6.0% 4.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 3.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 13.1% 17.5% 12.9% 9.8% 7.9% 7.8% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##