* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 62 67 75 78 80 76 72 68 63 57 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 62 67 75 78 80 76 72 68 63 57 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 66 72 81 84 83 76 67 60 54 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 11 8 6 7 1 4 8 12 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -6 -7 -6 -5 2 6 4 7 4 7 SHEAR DIR 58 54 53 61 67 71 141 139 194 243 244 243 252 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.4 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 148 146 142 137 135 133 129 126 128 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 65 65 63 59 55 54 50 49 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 17 18 18 18 20 18 17 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 21 22 28 30 38 25 37 42 49 22 27 27 34 200 MB DIV 91 63 41 49 53 54 73 49 31 1 7 22 15 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -3 -1 2 2 5 6 6 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1885 1789 1695 1628 1562 1403 1221 1051 853 650 408 210 15 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.7 19.7 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.8 139.5 140.0 140.6 141.9 143.4 144.9 146.7 148.6 150.9 152.8 154.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 27 25 23 15 9 9 5 5 8 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 23. 30. 33. 35. 31. 27. 23. 18. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.1 138.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.61 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 188.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 34.7% 25.5% 18.1% 16.7% 31.2% 24.4% Logistic: 14.6% 20.9% 17.1% 8.7% 4.7% 14.5% 10.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 19.7% 11.0% 4.4% 1.8% 2.1% 1.0% Consensus: 11.1% 25.1% 17.9% 10.4% 7.8% 16.0% 11.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##