* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 73 77 82 85 87 91 92 90 84 82 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 73 77 82 85 87 91 92 90 84 82 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 74 79 86 85 82 83 83 79 73 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 7 9 8 7 8 12 24 31 36 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -2 1 4 4 4 3 1 -4 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 264 242 282 2 49 349 4 310 294 283 275 272 280 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 155 151 147 144 140 136 129 121 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 132 131 129 125 119 119 119 117 112 105 98 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 10 11 9 9 8 9 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 47 47 43 42 43 40 40 39 43 43 43 40 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 23 25 26 27 27 31 34 34 34 37 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -34 -39 -50 -31 -16 -13 -24 -15 16 16 -29 -34 200 MB DIV 1 -1 2 -12 -7 -7 -11 12 40 8 26 4 25 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 5 6 2 7 11 22 LAND (KM) 1709 1689 1678 1670 1665 1616 1525 1493 1477 1435 1334 1317 1380 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.8 29.4 29.8 30.2 30.8 31.5 32.1 32.9 33.8 35.1 36.3 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.8 53.6 54.5 55.1 55.7 56.6 57.1 56.5 54.7 52.2 49.0 45.5 41.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 6 5 3 6 10 13 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 26 27 29 30 26 21 14 9 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 10. 13. 13. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 25. 27. 31. 32. 30. 24. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.1 52.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.71 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 506.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 24.3% 17.9% 17.3% 13.5% 10.6% 19.4% Logistic: 7.7% 21.0% 12.6% 8.9% 0.0% 5.6% 4.3% Bayesian: 2.8% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.5% Consensus: 6.4% 16.4% 10.6% 8.9% 4.6% 5.5% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/27/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 8( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 69 73 77 82 85 87 91 92 90 84 82 18HR AGO 60 59 64 68 72 77 80 82 86 87 85 79 77 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 64 69 72 74 78 79 77 71 69 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 59 62 64 68 69 67 61 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT