* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 85 86 86 82 77 68 66 60 58 53 52 V (KT) LAND 80 84 85 86 86 82 77 68 66 60 58 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 80 85 87 88 87 86 82 77 72 68 65 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 5 4 11 12 8 12 9 6 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 250 256 147 119 102 73 82 60 67 72 83 98 96 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.7 25.8 26.6 26.6 26.1 26.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 140 138 137 136 132 123 131 131 125 129 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 46 46 42 46 40 37 35 39 44 46 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 21 23 23 23 21 23 21 22 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 22 28 39 52 66 47 61 57 36 34 34 48 48 200 MB DIV 32 37 22 8 -12 -11 -22 -19 -27 -16 1 18 36 700-850 TADV 7 10 8 7 3 7 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 2 3 LAND (KM) 954 1014 1082 1171 1265 1462 1666 1899 2145 1967 1684 1426 1181 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.9 119.9 121.1 122.2 124.9 127.7 130.6 133.4 136.1 138.8 141.3 143.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 9 4 12 3 6 6 7 2 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. -2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -3. -12. -14. -20. -22. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.9 117.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 671.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 20.9% 28.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 3.7% 8.5% 5.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.3% 11.2% 3.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##