* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 60 65 68 66 63 60 56 50 45 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 60 65 68 66 63 60 56 50 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 57 60 65 66 62 55 48 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 8 7 6 4 7 7 9 14 23 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -7 -5 -3 2 7 8 7 5 3 4 SHEAR DIR 45 38 54 87 88 151 154 203 222 234 237 259 258 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 144 140 136 132 131 126 122 123 125 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 63 63 58 54 49 47 45 42 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 23 25 25 25 24 22 21 19 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 15 25 29 30 23 30 38 52 22 28 21 17 32 200 MB DIV 59 52 64 67 63 83 47 26 6 7 16 -2 12 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -5 0 0 3 6 10 10 2 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 1831 1751 1671 1604 1537 1344 1159 995 829 629 401 200 31 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.0 20.9 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 138.2 138.9 139.5 140.0 140.6 142.2 143.8 145.3 146.9 148.9 151.3 153.5 155.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 23 22 19 6 7 0 0 2 6 8 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 21. 18. 15. 11. 5. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 138.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.56 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.31 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.27 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 196.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.11 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 23.5% 19.4% 14.8% 0.0% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 6.2% 4.3% 1.2% 0.5% 3.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.2% 12.4% 8.6% 5.5% 0.2% 7.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##