* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 73 76 79 81 81 85 83 84 80 77 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 73 76 79 81 81 85 83 84 80 77 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 73 77 82 81 80 82 82 79 74 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 4 10 4 12 15 24 29 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 1 4 4 5 0 3 -1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 252 285 351 42 35 1 339 316 272 283 262 267 257 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 152 148 144 143 139 136 128 120 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 129 128 125 121 117 119 118 116 110 104 96 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 45 42 42 44 42 40 40 41 45 44 42 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 23 24 24 25 25 29 30 33 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -50 -62 -38 -39 -30 -38 -32 -17 0 -7 -16 -29 200 MB DIV -6 -5 -9 -5 0 -10 -1 7 56 16 32 6 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 6 8 6 4 6 19 31 LAND (KM) 1697 1695 1698 1695 1671 1604 1531 1508 1507 1433 1374 1335 1342 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.4 29.9 30.3 30.6 31.1 31.8 32.4 33.1 33.9 34.9 36.2 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.3 54.8 55.3 55.8 56.2 56.3 55.4 53.3 51.0 48.2 45.3 41.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 6 4 3 3 7 10 11 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 27 30 31 29 23 16 10 12 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 10. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 21. 25. 23. 24. 20. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.9 53.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.83 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.89 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.09 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.37 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 530.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 27.4% 22.2% 21.0% 18.6% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 12.5% 18.2% 12.0% 10.5% 0.0% 4.8% 4.3% Bayesian: 5.4% 7.7% 3.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 9.7% 17.8% 12.6% 10.9% 6.6% 5.3% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/27/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 69 73 76 79 81 81 85 83 84 80 77 18HR AGO 60 59 64 68 71 74 76 76 80 78 79 75 72 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 63 66 68 68 72 70 71 67 64 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 56 58 58 62 60 61 57 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT