* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 96 96 95 89 83 72 67 63 60 56 56 V (KT) LAND 90 93 96 96 95 89 83 72 67 63 60 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 90 94 96 96 94 91 86 79 75 71 68 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 1 3 6 9 10 12 12 8 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -4 -1 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 273 278 100 92 63 66 61 82 77 100 57 119 246 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.0 26.2 26.8 26.2 26.1 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 136 137 135 125 127 133 126 125 130 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 47 46 42 44 41 35 34 40 45 49 46 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 23 25 24 25 22 22 22 23 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 32 46 57 69 64 59 70 43 42 50 48 44 53 200 MB DIV 35 22 14 -9 0 5 -12 -24 -21 8 -1 19 24 700-850 TADV 9 8 8 1 6 3 0 -3 -3 0 0 6 8 LAND (KM) 1033 1113 1199 1307 1417 1595 1823 2067 2061 1800 1547 1295 1043 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.2 121.3 122.7 124.0 126.7 129.7 132.6 135.2 137.7 140.1 142.5 144.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 9 6 7 8 3 4 8 0 8 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 6. -1. -7. -18. -23. -27. -30. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.9 119.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 780.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 56.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 2.0% 4.5% 2.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 9.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/27/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 10 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##