* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 67 69 66 61 56 50 46 38 32 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 67 69 66 61 56 50 46 38 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 64 65 66 63 56 48 41 35 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 8 7 7 8 4 10 18 21 29 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -5 -5 0 9 13 4 10 4 5 2 SHEAR DIR 46 94 125 118 120 145 217 221 248 233 245 259 272 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 138 135 133 131 127 122 121 125 127 131 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 64 60 59 56 50 45 43 43 42 42 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 23 24 25 23 21 20 18 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 26 36 41 33 37 48 57 48 36 29 24 15 19 200 MB DIV 44 70 58 47 57 62 15 7 -14 -6 14 -16 3 700-850 TADV -7 -2 1 1 3 4 9 12 3 -1 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1732 1647 1563 1489 1415 1237 1058 881 693 497 275 117 20 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 18.3 19.3 20.2 20.8 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 139.7 140.4 141.0 141.6 143.1 144.7 146.4 148.3 150.3 152.7 154.8 156.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 21 16 9 8 2 0 1 2 7 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 11. 6. 1. -5. -9. -17. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.5 139.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 291.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 6.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##