* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 86 87 89 90 89 89 89 88 84 78 V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 86 87 89 90 89 89 89 88 84 78 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 87 89 90 89 87 85 84 83 81 77 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 7 12 8 11 15 17 19 19 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 3 2 6 1 -1 3 2 3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 277 344 16 357 341 353 330 319 297 291 271 266 264 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 149 148 146 143 141 138 131 123 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 126 123 121 120 120 117 116 115 112 107 98 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 9 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 43 41 45 44 40 43 41 45 44 43 39 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 27 29 32 34 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -63 -47 -46 -45 -36 -56 -33 -18 17 12 0 -28 200 MB DIV -3 -8 -8 4 8 -16 1 13 20 33 3 -3 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 4 10 8 3 12 13 32 23 LAND (KM) 1690 1701 1714 1725 1704 1675 1647 1615 1579 1511 1424 1359 1363 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.5 33.2 34.3 35.8 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 54.1 54.5 54.8 55.0 55.1 55.1 54.3 53.4 52.4 50.9 48.8 45.7 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 2 3 5 5 6 9 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 28 30 31 32 28 25 24 14 9 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 13. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14. 13. 9. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.2 54.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.59 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.20 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 687.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 19.8% 16.6% 12.7% 11.6% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 15.0% 10.7% 7.5% 0.0% 3.5% 2.8% Bayesian: 12.0% 8.9% 4.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 12.4% 14.6% 10.5% 7.0% 4.0% 4.3% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/28/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 10( 22) 11( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 83 86 87 89 90 89 89 89 88 84 78 18HR AGO 75 74 77 80 81 83 84 83 83 83 82 78 72 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 75 77 78 77 77 77 76 72 66 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 68 69 68 68 68 67 63 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 83 74 68 64 65 64 64 64 63 59 53