* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 100 99 97 91 83 77 72 67 63 59 56 V (KT) LAND 95 98 100 99 97 91 83 77 72 67 63 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 95 98 98 96 93 88 83 78 75 72 69 66 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 2 3 7 6 8 4 1 4 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 -2 -3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 241 201 230 33 73 69 88 66 96 192 218 237 241 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 26.5 25.8 26.4 26.2 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 135 136 130 122 129 126 123 125 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 45 42 44 41 38 37 38 43 46 44 43 43 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 45 52 59 59 51 57 59 45 53 56 47 32 32 200 MB DIV 17 11 3 -7 -2 20 -1 -13 -11 5 10 1 28 700-850 TADV 9 10 6 7 8 -2 0 -1 0 -2 3 7 11 LAND (KM) 1113 1200 1293 1400 1490 1707 1921 2148 1942 1680 1458 1194 921 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.4 122.6 124.0 125.4 128.3 131.0 133.7 136.3 138.8 140.9 143.4 146.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 6 4 16 2 7 1 5 1 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -17. -23. -28. -32. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 2. -4. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.0 120.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.95 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 840.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.72 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 55.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 2.1% 3.7% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##