* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 60 63 65 59 57 53 46 41 37 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 57 60 63 65 59 57 53 46 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 57 58 61 60 55 50 44 38 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 6 6 4 4 9 10 18 20 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -6 -6 -6 0 3 5 9 8 6 6 4 SHEAR DIR 99 113 127 123 129 150 216 238 235 244 255 271 263 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 136 134 133 132 126 123 125 128 131 136 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 56 52 48 43 41 41 41 39 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 19 20 20 18 18 17 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 33 22 29 43 44 14 17 10 12 16 28 200 MB DIV 50 57 50 58 68 51 11 -2 -10 -5 -16 -10 2 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 3 1 4 11 5 0 -3 -1 -2 2 LAND (KM) 1647 1576 1506 1421 1338 1152 995 796 568 341 142 -9 211 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.4 19.4 19.9 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.8 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 139.8 140.4 140.9 141.6 142.3 143.9 145.3 147.2 149.4 151.6 153.6 155.9 158.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 19 12 7 7 0 0 2 7 10 11 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. -1. -1. -1. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 9. 7. 3. -4. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 139.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 284.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.19 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 29.3% 22.4% 17.2% 13.8% 23.4% 16.0% Logistic: 3.1% 7.0% 4.8% 1.9% 0.9% 2.9% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 13.0% 9.5% 6.4% 4.9% 8.8% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##