* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 82 83 83 86 86 87 85 80 77 73 V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 82 83 83 86 86 87 85 80 77 73 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 82 82 82 82 83 83 82 79 73 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 8 11 9 15 13 23 23 17 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 6 6 3 0 2 1 3 7 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 342 5 352 335 355 331 312 283 290 273 263 252 267 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 150 148 148 146 143 141 138 132 124 116 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 123 120 119 118 118 118 116 112 106 100 92 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 39 42 42 39 38 41 41 42 39 36 39 41 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 23 22 22 23 27 28 32 34 33 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -50 -44 -44 -51 -54 -53 -37 -3 3 -16 -46 -72 200 MB DIV -5 -9 1 -1 -5 -4 3 61 8 18 -14 -2 -14 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 2 9 11 8 3 11 19 32 38 LAND (KM) 1718 1734 1699 1673 1646 1620 1591 1575 1507 1425 1345 1319 1394 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.3 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.4 31.9 32.5 33.2 34.2 35.5 37.0 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.5 54.8 55.0 55.1 55.3 55.2 54.4 53.1 51.4 49.3 47.0 43.9 40.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 2 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 31 32 32 29 25 21 14 10 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 5. 7. 11. 13. 10. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 11. 11. 12. 10. 5. 2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.9 54.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.77 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.61 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.18 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 726.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 19.4% 17.4% 15.5% 13.9% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 10.6% 7.5% 5.2% 0.0% 2.2% 1.5% Bayesian: 6.9% 3.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 11.2% 8.7% 7.0% 4.7% 3.9% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/28/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 9( 20) 9( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 81 82 83 83 86 86 87 85 80 77 73 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 78 78 81 81 82 80 75 72 68 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 73 73 76 76 77 75 70 67 63 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 66 69 69 70 68 63 60 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT