* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 81 80 78 76 73 68 66 64 62 59 57 V (KT) LAND 85 83 81 80 78 76 73 68 66 64 62 59 57 V (KT) LGEM 85 82 79 77 75 74 73 71 71 71 71 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 0 4 6 9 10 10 6 5 2 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 195 123 233 96 66 88 104 81 103 70 168 258 247 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.1 26.3 26.9 26.3 26.1 26.6 26.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 138 138 136 126 127 134 127 125 130 130 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 43 44 42 38 36 36 39 44 45 43 43 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 21 21 23 24 23 23 24 24 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 66 55 56 68 65 57 72 69 55 36 43 200 MB DIV 11 4 5 3 2 39 7 -17 19 -6 9 8 18 700-850 TADV 8 5 8 6 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 1 4 9 8 LAND (KM) 1230 1335 1439 1536 1641 1868 2077 2084 1821 1558 1306 1071 827 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.6 19.0 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.9 124.2 125.7 127.1 130.0 132.5 135.0 137.5 140.0 142.4 144.6 146.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 6 5 9 8 2 7 8 1 8 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -19. -21. -23. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.9 121.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 771.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.70 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##