* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 55 57 60 60 57 55 50 46 42 40 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 55 57 60 60 57 55 50 46 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 50 50 52 54 53 50 46 42 36 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 6 7 2 4 7 14 17 14 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -5 -6 1 6 6 10 7 8 5 6 SHEAR DIR 112 120 118 122 135 145 215 247 231 250 262 268 240 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 134 134 131 126 124 126 130 135 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 56 54 51 46 42 41 41 39 42 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 19 19 20 20 18 18 15 14 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 23 29 42 46 40 20 17 19 27 34 37 200 MB DIV 57 49 57 69 82 34 14 -2 -10 2 -18 8 -3 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 1 7 7 0 -3 -2 -6 2 0 LAND (KM) 1586 1507 1428 1337 1248 1086 870 659 461 230 45 150 313 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.6 19.3 19.7 19.8 19.6 19.0 18.8 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.0 141.6 142.3 143.1 144.5 146.5 148.5 150.4 152.6 154.9 157.3 159.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 15 8 7 5 0 0 3 10 15 26 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 5. 0. -4. -8. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.9 140.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.20 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.50 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 313.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.46 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 27.7% 20.6% 15.0% 13.0% 18.5% 15.0% Logistic: 1.3% 6.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0.9% 1.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 11.5% 7.7% 5.6% 4.6% 6.6% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##