* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 93 90 90 88 88 86 85 81 75 72 66 V (KT) LAND 90 92 93 90 90 88 88 86 85 81 75 72 66 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 93 91 90 88 86 85 82 77 71 65 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 9 11 10 12 17 20 25 18 14 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 8 7 3 1 -3 3 0 6 7 7 7 SHEAR DIR 2 337 341 359 343 330 312 299 289 284 257 256 271 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.3 25.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 147 148 146 143 139 135 127 119 109 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 120 118 119 120 118 116 114 109 102 94 88 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 41 41 38 39 42 40 43 42 42 37 42 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 23 25 26 29 30 34 34 33 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -39 -40 -39 -38 -55 -46 -13 16 4 -6 -26 -50 200 MB DIV -5 7 -7 -13 -6 4 12 34 42 0 12 3 -10 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 2 3 10 10 5 11 18 30 22 20 LAND (KM) 1737 1713 1675 1661 1646 1610 1581 1525 1454 1377 1320 1380 1511 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.6 32.3 33.0 33.8 35.0 36.7 38.0 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 54.9 55.1 55.2 55.3 54.8 53.5 51.9 50.2 47.7 44.5 41.1 37.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 5 7 8 10 14 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 31 31 31 27 21 14 10 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 8. 8. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -9. -15. -18. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.3 54.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.80 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.70 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.02 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 30.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 870.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 17.1% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 7.4% 5.2% 3.1% 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 8.9% 6.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/28/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 14( 24) 12( 33) 11( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 92 93 90 90 88 88 86 85 81 75 72 66 18HR AGO 90 89 90 87 87 85 85 83 82 78 72 69 63 12HR AGO 90 87 86 83 83 81 81 79 78 74 68 65 59 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 78 78 76 75 71 65 62 56 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 69 69 67 66 62 56 53 47 IN 6HR 90 92 83 77 74 71 71 69 68 64 58 55 49 IN 12HR 90 92 93 84 78 74 74 72 71 67 61 58 52