* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 52 55 52 50 48 44 38 35 34 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 52 55 52 50 48 44 38 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 49 51 51 48 44 39 35 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 5 5 3 3 6 10 12 13 12 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -7 -7 -1 1 4 5 3 4 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 139 116 110 136 138 195 218 227 234 261 267 258 256 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 134 133 132 129 125 124 128 132 136 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 56 53 51 47 44 41 40 38 38 39 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 17 19 17 16 15 13 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 28 17 24 39 38 38 0 8 9 18 22 37 47 200 MB DIV 44 50 54 72 50 2 2 -5 6 5 1 0 -11 700-850 TADV 5 5 1 0 2 9 4 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1546 1459 1373 1289 1207 1029 817 607 398 186 33 181 372 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.0 19.5 19.6 19.3 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.3 142.0 142.7 143.4 145.0 147.0 149.0 151.0 153.1 155.3 157.5 159.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 8 8 10 4 0 3 6 14 19 36 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 7. 5. 3. -1. -7. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.2 140.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.47 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.44 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 317.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.45 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.36 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.75 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 28.1% 20.7% 15.3% 12.7% 17.1% 15.5% Logistic: 2.6% 14.7% 6.8% 3.9% 2.2% 3.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 14.4% 9.2% 6.4% 5.0% 6.9% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##