* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 103 101 100 95 94 93 85 80 76 67 61 V (KT) LAND 100 104 103 101 100 95 94 93 85 80 76 67 61 V (KT) LGEM 100 104 103 100 97 93 92 89 83 76 70 64 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 11 7 9 14 14 24 19 13 14 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 4 0 -2 1 1 4 11 9 11 6 SHEAR DIR 344 334 354 340 322 311 281 276 266 256 263 296 293 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.6 25.9 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 146 147 144 139 134 127 121 115 107 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 122 120 117 119 121 118 113 108 104 99 93 91 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 41 37 38 40 39 40 43 41 37 39 41 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 23 26 26 29 33 32 34 35 32 29 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -37 -38 -33 -50 -46 -27 -5 2 -4 -24 -52 -85 200 MB DIV 3 -16 -23 -9 14 -6 45 25 36 19 2 -42 -25 700-850 TADV 3 0 2 2 8 8 9 4 14 24 23 23 21 LAND (KM) 1709 1670 1632 1620 1608 1574 1522 1438 1374 1357 1377 1518 1747 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.4 32.0 33.0 33.9 34.9 35.9 37.2 38.2 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.3 55.6 55.6 55.5 54.6 52.7 50.6 48.2 45.5 42.4 38.6 34.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 2 3 7 10 10 12 13 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 31 30 29 24 12 11 6 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -25. -32. -38. -43. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 3. 7. 5. 6. 7. 3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. 1. 0. -5. -6. -7. -15. -20. -24. -33. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.6 55.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.08 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 985.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 27.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 7.2% 4.9% 2.4% 0.0% 1.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 15.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.7% 2.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/28/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 22( 54) 17( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 103 101 100 95 94 93 85 80 76 67 61 18HR AGO 100 99 98 96 95 90 89 88 80 75 71 62 56 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 93 88 87 86 78 73 69 60 54 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 84 83 82 74 69 65 56 50 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 76 75 74 66 61 57 48 42 IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 82 81 80 72 67 63 54 48 IN 12HR 100 104 103 94 88 84 83 82 74 69 65 56 50