* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 49 53 56 55 54 54 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 49 53 56 55 54 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 45 51 55 54 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 12 13 15 9 11 14 25 33 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 145 150 162 180 255 238 265 258 255 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.8 27.3 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 156 155 152 151 148 150 129 136 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 130 129 127 123 121 122 126 110 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -1.2 -1.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 7 8 6 6 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 45 47 51 52 54 53 58 61 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -50 -58 -60 -47 -46 -19 -45 -14 0 34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 8 8 20 18 -2 -14 1 19 29 51 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 -10 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 640 548 455 376 297 198 128 162 326 410 471 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.0 32.3 32.7 33.1 33.7 34.4 35.6 37.0 38.3 39.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.7 71.7 72.6 73.3 74.0 74.8 75.1 74.1 71.8 68.5 64.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 4 5 9 14 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 28 27 30 37 43 43 32 41 12 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. -1. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 25. 24. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.6 70.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.57 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.37 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.27 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.65 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 65.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 232.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.2% 8.1% 6.6% 4.7% 7.2% 14.3% Logistic: 1.6% 4.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 1.1% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.3% 3.3% 2.4% 1.6% 2.8% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/28/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 45 49 53 56 55 54 54 53 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 42 46 50 53 52 51 51 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 41 45 48 47 46 46 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 32 36 39 38 37 37 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT