* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 73 72 71 71 71 68 67 65 62 61 V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 73 72 71 71 71 68 67 65 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 71 71 71 70 70 71 71 71 70 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 7 12 13 13 8 9 9 5 1 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 264 60 61 68 70 79 77 125 113 162 220 240 245 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.3 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.6 27.0 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 133 128 128 136 129 126 130 134 132 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 44 43 39 40 39 38 41 39 40 40 44 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 23 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 59 55 53 54 55 59 61 69 75 79 73 67 55 200 MB DIV 11 14 13 5 19 8 -8 5 1 19 11 8 0 700-850 TADV 10 5 -2 -6 -2 -2 -3 0 1 0 4 4 11 LAND (KM) 1441 1538 1641 1739 1842 2074 2076 1825 1603 1383 1155 886 576 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.7 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 124.1 125.5 126.9 128.3 129.6 132.4 135.1 137.5 139.6 141.7 143.9 146.4 149.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 9 15 11 3 11 14 2 4 10 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -7. -8. -10. -13. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.9 124.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 648.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##