* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 67 68 64 60 54 48 43 40 38 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 67 68 64 60 54 48 43 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 69 70 67 61 54 48 43 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 4 3 3 7 9 13 14 15 15 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -6 -2 -2 0 1 6 2 5 2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 90 107 134 121 147 195 223 226 243 245 249 238 247 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.5 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 134 133 131 127 124 127 131 134 139 141 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 46 43 42 41 41 40 40 42 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 15 17 16 16 14 11 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 21 27 41 39 41 33 1 8 9 23 31 47 56 200 MB DIV 38 53 61 47 20 17 3 6 4 -9 -3 -7 -10 700-850 TADV 4 0 -1 0 6 5 0 -2 -4 -5 -1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1431 1342 1256 1160 1065 882 680 471 253 63 74 291 486 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 19.6 19.2 19.0 19.0 18.5 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.3 143.0 143.9 144.7 146.4 148.3 150.3 152.4 154.5 156.6 158.6 160.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 9 10 7 0 1 5 11 16 25 42 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 12. 13. 9. 5. -1. -7. -12. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.6 141.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.37 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 431.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.29 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.94 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 37.1% 26.6% 19.4% 18.4% 31.5% 15.5% Logistic: 8.4% 24.3% 15.9% 11.6% 7.0% 6.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 21.0% 14.4% 10.4% 8.5% 12.6% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##