* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 105 104 103 99 96 95 91 83 75 66 60 V (KT) LAND 105 106 105 104 103 99 96 95 91 83 75 66 60 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 105 101 97 94 92 90 83 75 67 60 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 8 6 9 15 15 18 21 13 19 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 6 4 3 -2 5 2 7 10 9 7 5 SHEAR DIR 359 2 4 337 333 308 285 266 246 258 300 321 340 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.7 26.8 26.1 25.2 25.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 146 146 142 139 134 124 117 109 107 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 118 118 121 119 118 115 108 102 94 92 90 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 9 9 8 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 38 38 41 41 39 42 40 38 33 37 38 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 25 26 27 29 32 33 33 31 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -41 -35 -44 -45 -37 -13 20 1 -25 -49 -73 -78 200 MB DIV -14 -14 -11 3 6 11 45 59 30 -6 -34 -28 -46 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 9 7 9 4 12 22 32 26 16 4 LAND (KM) 1699 1661 1622 1620 1612 1570 1528 1453 1361 1398 1569 1801 2010 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.5 32.4 33.0 34.0 35.6 36.9 37.7 37.7 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 55.4 55.6 55.4 55.1 53.5 51.5 49.0 46.2 42.5 38.4 34.9 32.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 3 6 8 10 13 15 16 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 30 29 28 20 13 9 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -29. -36. -43. -49. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 9. 6. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -10. -14. -21. -30. -39. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 30.6 55.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.08 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1034.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 4.8% 3.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 25( 60) 21( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 106 105 104 103 99 96 95 91 83 75 66 60 18HR AGO 105 104 103 102 101 97 94 93 89 81 73 64 58 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 99 95 92 91 87 79 71 62 56 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 90 87 86 82 74 66 57 51 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 82 79 78 74 66 58 49 43 IN 6HR 105 106 97 91 88 86 83 82 78 70 62 53 47 IN 12HR 105 106 105 96 90 86 83 82 78 70 62 53 47