* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 68 68 65 61 55 51 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 68 68 65 61 55 51 47 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 68 71 72 68 63 57 52 49 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 1 3 5 7 6 14 17 16 13 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 0 1 1 3 6 6 6 3 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 115 129 158 175 175 234 218 244 255 234 225 214 194 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 131 129 126 125 129 133 138 141 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 52 50 46 43 43 40 40 38 37 37 36 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 19 18 17 15 14 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 32 45 43 44 46 14 3 8 26 39 46 54 51 200 MB DIV 47 61 58 37 29 0 0 13 4 3 4 -5 4 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 5 7 5 0 -1 -2 0 1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1301 1211 1124 1029 936 744 555 324 90 45 254 442 594 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.5 19.2 18.8 18.4 17.9 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.5 144.2 145.0 145.9 147.7 149.5 151.7 154.0 156.2 158.2 160.4 162.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 9 6 2 0 4 7 14 25 44 31 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 10. 6. 0. -4. -8. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.2 142.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.36 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 460.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.25 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.74 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 5.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 36.9% 25.9% 19.1% 18.1% 30.2% 15.8% Logistic: 6.8% 22.5% 15.5% 13.3% 8.4% 6.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 20.3% 14.0% 10.8% 8.8% 12.1% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##