* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 97 97 96 94 91 88 87 82 71 64 53 V (KT) LAND 100 98 97 97 96 94 91 88 87 82 71 64 53 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 96 94 93 91 90 86 80 72 65 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 11 13 15 17 18 19 15 14 10 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 1 3 0 0 4 6 5 10 11 14 4 SHEAR DIR 354 353 342 340 319 288 274 238 243 247 320 346 16 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.3 25.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 146 145 142 137 127 121 115 109 105 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 121 120 121 120 118 109 104 99 94 89 86 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 37 39 40 38 39 39 38 35 38 39 38 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 24 28 28 30 30 32 34 34 29 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -41 -49 -54 -46 -36 -6 -1 -13 -37 -54 -69 -87 200 MB DIV -17 -10 2 0 -10 31 17 53 20 -8 -75 -61 -42 700-850 TADV 4 6 11 7 6 12 -1 16 34 24 21 10 15 LAND (KM) 1690 1673 1654 1636 1619 1579 1487 1406 1392 1491 1695 1877 1997 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.4 31.7 32.5 33.5 34.8 36.1 37.1 37.5 37.7 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 55.2 55.1 54.6 54.2 52.4 50.2 47.4 44.2 40.5 36.7 33.8 32.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 5 7 10 12 14 15 15 14 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 30 28 25 23 11 5 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -17. -25. -33. -39. -45. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. 0. -3. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -18. -29. -36. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.7 55.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.08 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1016.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 3.6% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/29/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 20( 38) 19( 49) 16( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 97 97 96 94 91 88 87 82 71 64 53 18HR AGO 100 99 98 98 97 95 92 89 88 83 72 65 54 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 95 93 90 87 86 81 70 63 52 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 87 84 81 80 75 64 57 46 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 76 73 72 67 56 49 38 IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 80 77 74 73 68 57 50 39 IN 12HR 100 98 97 88 82 78 75 72 71 66 55 48 37