* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 104 100 95 88 79 72 67 65 58 56 52 V (KT) LAND 100 104 104 100 95 88 79 72 67 65 58 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 100 104 103 98 93 87 81 76 74 71 68 65 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 10 14 13 9 9 10 10 4 3 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 -3 -6 -4 0 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 100 87 89 94 102 94 119 105 140 124 161 218 182 SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.2 26.1 26.4 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.7 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 127 125 128 134 130 128 131 135 130 126 127 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 39 38 39 41 43 42 42 46 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 21 24 22 23 24 25 22 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 51 54 52 55 64 60 72 69 63 53 40 45 65 200 MB DIV 6 0 8 8 -4 -20 7 -4 -6 9 24 14 24 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 0 -3 -2 -2 0 2 4 1 9 5 LAND (KM) 1656 1767 1882 1984 2090 2087 1836 1608 1365 1122 855 608 361 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.1 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 127.1 128.6 130.0 131.3 132.5 135.0 137.4 139.6 141.9 144.2 146.7 149.0 151.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 12 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 10 4 4 11 15 2 5 9 2 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -21. -27. -33. -36. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 3. 5. 6. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 0. -5. -12. -21. -28. -33. -35. -42. -44. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.9 127.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 868.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 0.8% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##