* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 98 99 98 97 96 90 86 81 68 61 54 V (KT) LAND 100 98 98 99 98 97 96 90 86 81 68 61 54 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 96 95 94 93 92 87 79 70 61 54 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 9 13 17 19 25 20 19 14 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 3 2 -1 0 2 3 6 11 11 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 5 351 350 317 305 283 258 245 236 274 324 350 1 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.2 25.0 25.0 24.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 149 146 144 138 130 118 107 106 101 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 123 124 123 123 119 112 102 93 92 86 81 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 39 39 37 38 38 36 37 38 42 39 37 36 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 28 27 29 32 31 31 32 27 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -50 -54 -51 -46 -18 6 -9 -28 -45 -72 -72 -114 200 MB DIV -16 0 1 -2 10 36 42 36 20 -30 -48 -68 -44 700-850 TADV 6 10 7 5 9 2 8 19 25 16 9 7 5 LAND (KM) 1670 1651 1625 1610 1598 1538 1431 1362 1386 1541 1793 1965 1774 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.8 32.1 32.9 34.2 35.7 37.1 37.9 37.9 38.2 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.2 55.0 54.3 53.6 51.6 49.0 45.9 42.4 38.6 34.8 31.8 29.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 8 11 14 15 15 15 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 23 21 20 13 9 2 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -24. -32. -39. -44. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 5. 5. 5. -3. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -14. -19. -32. -39. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.8 55.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1010.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 21( 51) 20( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 98 99 98 97 96 90 86 81 68 61 54 18HR AGO 100 99 99 100 99 98 97 91 87 82 69 62 55 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 96 95 94 88 84 79 66 59 52 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 88 87 81 77 72 59 52 45 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 79 73 69 64 51 44 37 IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 79 78 72 68 63 50 43 36 IN 12HR 100 98 98 89 83 79 78 72 68 63 50 43 36