* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 48 47 48 47 48 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 48 47 48 47 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 35 38 42 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 12 8 17 20 27 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 164 187 220 256 262 268 267 253 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.4 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 147 144 138 143 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 120 119 117 116 114 119 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 5 6 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 49 48 50 50 55 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -41 -39 -39 -24 -30 -41 18 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 29 8 -6 0 -6 -7 35 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 2 2 3 -3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 361 297 233 190 148 114 208 350 358 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.4 33.7 34.0 34.2 35.0 36.2 37.5 38.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.2 73.8 74.3 74.6 75.0 74.8 73.5 71.2 68.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 4 3 6 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 33 37 40 42 31 29 38 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 18. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 17. 18. 17. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.0 73.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.58 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 187.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.6% 8.9% 7.6% 6.0% 7.6% 12.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.4% 3.7% 2.8% 2.0% 2.6% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 48 47 48 47 48 47 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 40 43 46 45 46 45 46 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 35 38 41 40 41 40 41 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 30 33 32 33 32 33 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT