* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 112 107 102 91 81 73 65 60 52 51 47 V (KT) LAND 110 114 112 107 102 91 81 73 65 60 52 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 110 114 111 106 101 92 85 78 73 68 64 60 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 11 9 9 7 5 5 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 2 2 5 4 SHEAR DIR 80 88 82 105 105 109 120 100 146 161 172 212 197 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.2 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 133 136 136 131 131 134 134 131 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 42 40 41 40 39 41 42 43 40 43 47 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 22 22 20 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 50 63 59 61 64 62 51 53 29 35 29 200 MB DIV 0 5 4 -15 -10 -1 26 18 12 16 15 26 0 700-850 TADV -5 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 1 6 2 5 7 9 LAND (KM) 1767 1866 1968 2078 2190 1973 1741 1489 1237 981 757 492 253 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.8 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.9 131.1 132.4 133.7 136.1 138.3 140.7 143.1 145.5 147.6 150.1 152.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 5 5 9 17 14 3 9 6 6 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -34. -40. -45. -48. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. 0. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 10. 5. 1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -3. -8. -19. -29. -37. -45. -50. -58. -59. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.0 128.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 970.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##