* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 94 97 98 97 89 78 67 58 54 51 49 47 V (KT) LAND 85 94 97 98 97 89 78 67 58 54 51 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 85 96 102 103 100 93 83 74 65 59 57 58 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 1 3 5 5 7 14 14 13 9 9 3 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 4 5 5 5 7 3 2 -4 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 341 72 171 196 237 241 250 252 251 220 247 171 220 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 131 129 130 134 137 141 145 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 42 40 39 38 37 37 39 42 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 19 20 19 18 16 14 13 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 36 35 9 5 16 30 34 53 58 57 47 200 MB DIV 38 31 35 29 11 5 18 28 10 -1 -15 -15 -8 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 7 6 0 -2 0 0 3 -3 0 3 LAND (KM) 1127 1033 940 843 746 548 344 152 69 255 476 624 776 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.3 17.8 17.3 16.8 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 144.2 145.0 145.9 146.8 147.7 149.6 151.6 153.7 155.8 157.9 160.0 162.2 164.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 5 4 7 8 10 17 31 58 33 34 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 37.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 12. 13. 12. 4. -7. -18. -27. -31. -34. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.0 144.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 783.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 48.0% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.5% 24.0% 19.5% 17.1% 10.3% 4.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.1% 18.7% 6.5% 5.7% 3.4% 1.6% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##