* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 95 96 97 94 92 89 84 72 58 45 34 V (KT) LAND 95 94 95 96 97 94 92 89 84 72 58 45 34 V (KT) LGEM 95 93 92 92 92 91 89 84 76 64 53 44 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 11 11 11 16 16 19 19 19 18 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 2 1 7 5 11 12 7 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 8 348 314 306 282 283 245 244 247 334 12 12 61 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.1 25.8 24.9 24.8 24.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 147 145 136 128 114 106 104 98 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 124 124 124 124 117 111 99 91 88 83 79 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.5 -53.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 38 36 37 38 38 36 38 39 38 35 28 24 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 27 29 29 30 32 33 28 23 18 12 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -51 -54 -49 -45 -14 -1 -9 -35 -56 -82 -115 -103 200 MB DIV 0 9 -2 4 47 5 56 43 -1 -86 -64 -34 7 700-850 TADV 12 11 8 8 13 4 21 33 11 9 1 11 -4 LAND (KM) 1641 1634 1623 1615 1600 1528 1430 1392 1480 1657 1884 1906 1760 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.4 31.6 32.0 32.3 33.1 34.5 36.0 37.3 38.0 38.0 38.6 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 54.9 54.4 53.5 52.7 50.4 47.7 44.4 40.4 36.7 33.4 31.2 29.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 8 9 12 14 16 16 14 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 22 21 21 11 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -27. -34. -40. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. -1. -8. -16. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. -1. -3. -6. -11. -23. -37. -50. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 31.1 55.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 972.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 4.7% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 20( 45) 16( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 94 95 96 97 94 92 89 84 72 58 45 34 18HR AGO 95 94 95 96 97 94 92 89 84 72 58 45 34 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 93 90 88 85 80 68 54 41 30 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 83 81 78 73 61 47 34 23 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 73 71 68 63 51 37 24 DIS IN 6HR 95 94 85 79 76 73 71 68 63 51 37 24 DIS IN 12HR 95 94 95 86 80 76 74 71 66 54 40 27 16