* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 111 107 102 92 85 77 70 64 59 56 52 V (KT) LAND 115 115 111 107 102 92 85 77 70 64 59 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 110 105 100 92 85 78 73 68 64 61 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 2 0 3 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -5 -4 -2 1 5 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 82 82 95 96 95 124 111 133 137 157 148 176 210 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 135 137 133 130 132 134 132 129 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 39 40 38 39 39 42 42 40 39 44 46 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 24 24 24 25 24 23 22 21 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 64 56 67 62 66 57 53 57 52 66 52 200 MB DIV -3 1 -9 -2 0 23 18 12 9 19 5 12 5 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 2 3 1 6 7 4 LAND (KM) 1874 1977 2083 2181 2118 1866 1615 1373 1119 862 586 342 192 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.5 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 129.9 131.2 132.5 133.6 134.7 137.1 139.5 141.8 144.2 146.6 149.2 151.7 154.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 5 9 9 17 6 5 11 2 5 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -20. -30. -38. -45. -50. -54. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. 1. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -8. -13. -23. -30. -38. -45. -51. -56. -59. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.0 129.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1043.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##