* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 106 104 99 88 76 66 60 54 50 47 46 V (KT) LAND 100 106 106 104 99 88 76 66 60 54 50 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 100 106 107 103 98 89 80 73 66 61 60 61 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 3 4 4 9 13 11 9 6 10 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 5 4 6 3 6 0 1 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 115 149 185 190 226 220 259 241 242 178 245 207 217 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 130 130 128 132 136 139 143 147 148 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 44 42 40 38 36 35 35 35 37 39 38 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 21 20 20 19 17 16 13 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 26 9 5 10 19 33 46 62 64 57 54 200 MB DIV 25 33 25 4 0 -5 14 0 0 6 -22 -18 -24 700-850 TADV 5 8 6 2 2 0 2 2 2 0 -3 4 0 LAND (KM) 1038 945 852 757 663 454 243 109 163 366 481 599 770 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.8 18.4 17.9 17.6 17.8 17.7 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 145.0 145.9 146.7 147.6 148.5 150.5 152.6 154.7 156.8 159.0 161.2 163.3 165.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 9 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 3 7 8 9 13 23 48 47 31 41 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -34. -37. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -12. -13. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 4. -1. -11. -24. -34. -40. -46. -50. -53. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.3 145.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 963.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##