* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 88 90 89 91 90 87 79 66 54 41 30 V (KT) LAND 90 88 88 90 89 91 90 87 79 66 54 41 30 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 86 87 88 89 86 80 68 56 47 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 12 15 15 21 25 26 10 15 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 1 1 5 4 6 3 14 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 340 326 309 297 289 259 234 222 256 318 11 39 73 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.4 26.3 24.8 24.4 24.2 23.5 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 147 146 141 131 120 106 101 99 95 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 125 124 124 121 115 106 93 87 84 81 79 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -53.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 36 38 39 38 36 37 36 40 33 33 29 28 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 28 27 30 32 34 32 26 21 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -55 -55 -46 -34 4 -3 -27 -44 -92 -103 -131 -105 200 MB DIV 11 1 3 26 24 27 51 37 -15 -96 -74 -39 4 700-850 TADV 9 9 10 14 4 12 15 0 2 0 0 7 10 LAND (KM) 1628 1629 1632 1606 1560 1469 1385 1421 1623 1852 1866 1683 1478 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.6 31.8 32.3 32.7 33.8 35.4 37.0 38.2 38.7 38.4 39.2 41.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.9 54.2 53.5 52.6 51.6 49.3 46.1 41.9 37.0 33.2 30.7 28.7 26.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 11 13 17 20 18 13 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 22 14 9 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -25. -31. -36. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 6. 8. 5. -3. -10. -18. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 0. -1. 1. 0. -3. -11. -24. -36. -49. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.4 54.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.68 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.05 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 895.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.06 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 12.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.8% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 11( 30) 12( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 88 90 89 91 90 87 79 66 54 41 30 18HR AGO 90 89 89 91 90 92 91 88 80 67 55 42 31 12HR AGO 90 87 86 88 87 89 88 85 77 64 52 39 28 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 81 80 77 69 56 44 31 20 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 73 72 69 61 48 36 23 DIS IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 68 67 64 56 43 31 18 DIS IN 12HR 90 88 88 79 73 69 68 65 57 44 32 19 DIS