* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 46 42 40 37 35 33 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 46 42 40 37 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 42 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 10 12 18 23 32 39 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 247 258 267 280 278 273 263 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.5 25.9 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 144 143 140 146 116 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 116 115 115 117 125 102 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 50 52 55 61 66 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -56 -36 -26 -42 -49 -7 31 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -14 -11 -17 -8 0 11 65 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 1 5 3 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 255 215 176 154 140 230 409 416 353 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.0 34.3 34.7 35.0 36.0 37.5 39.5 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.3 74.5 74.5 74.5 73.3 70.4 66.4 61.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 5 11 16 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 38 42 42 37 34 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 1. -7. -13. -20. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 16. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.7 74.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.53 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 13.8% 9.5% 8.3% 6.6% 7.5% 10.0% Logistic: 3.5% 10.0% 6.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.0% 5.2% 4.1% 2.2% 2.7% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 46 42 40 37 35 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 43 43 39 37 34 32 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 38 38 34 32 29 27 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 30 30 26 24 21 19 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT