* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 113 106 102 93 86 78 71 65 58 55 52 V (KT) LAND 120 117 113 106 102 93 86 78 71 65 58 55 52 V (KT) LGEM 120 117 112 107 102 94 86 78 71 65 60 56 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 8 8 8 8 2 3 0 2 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -7 -4 -3 -2 -2 1 1 4 1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 83 100 96 92 106 120 122 222 236 186 153 218 296 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 135 136 135 131 130 132 132 129 130 131 133 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 42 41 39 42 43 43 42 38 38 40 43 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 22 24 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 46 57 52 66 66 57 47 46 41 40 50 55 51 200 MB DIV 4 0 -2 -6 5 24 17 23 24 9 7 7 13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 5 3 5 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 1977 2079 2184 2102 1982 1741 1497 1253 1009 754 507 292 145 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.5 133.7 134.9 136.0 138.3 140.6 142.9 145.2 147.6 150.0 152.5 155.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 9 9 15 14 3 8 6 2 4 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -24. -34. -43. -50. -55. -59. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -14. -18. -27. -34. -42. -49. -55. -62. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.1 131.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1023.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.44 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 33.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##