* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 112 106 100 86 73 62 56 52 49 49 47 V (KT) LAND 110 114 112 106 100 86 73 62 56 52 49 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 110 112 108 101 94 82 72 64 59 57 57 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 6 11 12 11 12 15 13 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 5 5 6 6 2 3 0 4 6 4 SHEAR DIR 165 232 228 234 224 242 251 240 232 214 219 202 216 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 129 128 129 134 138 141 144 146 148 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 42 39 37 36 36 36 34 36 36 38 36 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 20 20 18 15 14 14 13 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 8 7 14 17 25 35 56 70 58 53 58 200 MB DIV 27 28 3 -4 -9 11 20 8 36 3 -10 -6 -6 700-850 TADV 6 7 4 2 0 0 4 1 3 2 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 938 841 745 646 547 344 168 88 223 384 417 566 801 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.8 18.5 18.1 17.9 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 145.9 146.8 147.7 148.7 149.6 151.6 153.6 155.6 157.6 159.6 161.8 164.2 166.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 7 7 10 18 34 55 36 33 64 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -27. -34. -39. -43. -46. -48. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -4. -10. -24. -37. -48. -54. -58. -61. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.7 145.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1118.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 70.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 70 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##