* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 90 89 90 91 91 84 74 62 47 35 23 V (KT) LAND 90 89 90 89 90 91 91 84 74 62 47 35 23 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 89 89 89 90 86 75 62 51 43 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 11 17 18 15 25 29 19 13 28 31 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 1 -2 9 2 5 3 7 0 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 327 317 303 291 289 244 225 223 276 311 360 21 59 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.7 26.8 24.8 23.9 23.2 23.2 23.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 143 135 126 107 100 93 92 92 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 124 123 122 118 112 95 87 81 79 79 77 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.9 -53.2 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 37 39 38 37 36 36 36 36 30 30 30 28 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 25 27 29 32 31 27 23 17 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -59 -45 -33 -18 2 -12 -50 -92 -125 -126 -131 -131 200 MB DIV -8 3 30 30 21 53 51 1 -47 -54 -73 -32 -15 700-850 TADV 6 11 12 2 5 19 21 -11 1 -6 8 6 -8 LAND (KM) 1612 1610 1600 1555 1515 1403 1376 1505 1750 1803 1630 1431 1214 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.0 32.3 32.8 33.2 34.7 36.5 38.2 39.4 40.0 39.8 40.4 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 54.4 53.5 52.7 51.6 50.6 47.9 43.7 38.8 34.0 30.4 28.2 26.0 23.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 16 21 20 17 11 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 14 12 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -27. -34. -39. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 2. -5. -13. -20. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. -6. -16. -28. -43. -55. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.7 54.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.58 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.71 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.04 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 873.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 12.3% 9.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.1% 3.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/30/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 12( 32) 12( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 90 89 90 91 91 84 74 62 47 35 23 18HR AGO 90 89 90 89 90 91 91 84 74 62 47 35 23 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 86 87 87 80 70 58 43 31 19 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 82 82 75 65 53 38 26 DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 72 72 65 55 43 28 16 DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 70 70 63 53 41 26 DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 90 81 75 71 71 64 54 42 27 15 DIS