* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 102 98 96 90 82 76 69 62 55 51 49 V (KT) LAND 110 106 102 98 96 90 82 76 69 62 55 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 110 105 101 98 94 87 79 73 67 59 54 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 10 9 6 8 3 2 4 7 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -5 -2 -2 0 4 7 6 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 113 97 81 101 133 130 167 190 147 167 143 175 197 SST (C) 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 137 135 132 130 132 133 130 127 131 130 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 40 41 43 43 43 42 40 40 41 45 48 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 24 26 26 24 24 23 21 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 53 48 59 63 62 55 47 41 39 27 53 55 61 200 MB DIV 4 6 8 3 -1 -7 18 21 22 9 22 3 18 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 2 5 2 8 5 2 4 LAND (KM) 2092 2199 2087 1971 1855 1613 1383 1147 891 629 395 229 167 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.5 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.8 135.0 136.1 137.2 139.5 141.7 143.9 146.3 148.8 151.2 153.7 156.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 10 15 17 6 5 11 0 4 8 4 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -27. -34. -41. -46. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -14. -20. -28. -34. -41. -48. -55. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.2 132.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 956.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.28 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##