* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 109 103 93 77 65 55 51 49 44 42 43 V (KT) LAND 115 114 109 103 93 77 65 55 51 49 44 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 106 97 90 78 67 59 55 52 49 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 8 12 15 14 18 19 16 14 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 4 5 9 3 7 1 3 2 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 235 231 241 219 228 259 242 242 210 230 197 232 282 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 127 130 132 136 139 142 145 147 148 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 39 38 35 37 36 35 36 37 38 39 36 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 19 20 18 18 16 14 14 15 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 19 4 3 11 14 28 31 47 71 74 63 49 44 200 MB DIV 27 17 0 0 3 9 9 11 18 -13 -38 -31 -35 700-850 TADV 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 -3 LAND (KM) 851 755 660 557 454 251 127 102 301 400 449 636 918 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.6 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 146.7 147.6 148.5 149.5 150.5 152.6 154.4 156.4 158.6 160.6 162.6 165.2 168.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 6 7 9 14 22 35 49 31 42 58 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -30. -38. -44. -48. -51. -53. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -12. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -12. -22. -38. -50. -60. -64. -66. -71. -73. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.0 146.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1198.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##