* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 84 84 84 84 82 75 60 48 33 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 84 84 84 84 82 75 60 48 33 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 84 84 84 85 83 77 65 54 44 37 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 16 18 17 23 24 23 18 25 28 30 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 0 3 5 4 6 9 2 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 300 293 290 288 267 230 214 255 294 323 13 27 61 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.2 25.7 24.3 23.6 23.3 23.5 22.8 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 143 138 130 115 103 96 93 94 93 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 123 123 120 115 102 91 84 79 80 82 78 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -53.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 39 39 38 37 37 35 39 37 35 36 36 36 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 28 28 31 32 30 24 20 14 9 4 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -47 -32 -17 9 -19 -38 -54 -105 -101 -115 -112 -103 200 MB DIV 6 28 29 14 36 47 28 -13 -51 -59 -61 0 5 700-850 TADV 9 12 3 6 14 21 -4 1 0 8 6 8 23 LAND (KM) 1615 1595 1560 1496 1440 1359 1431 1634 1891 1707 1587 1342 1013 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.4 32.7 33.4 34.1 35.8 37.6 39.0 39.6 39.7 39.3 40.9 43.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 52.5 51.6 50.4 49.1 45.7 40.8 36.0 31.9 29.1 27.6 25.1 21.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 13 15 19 21 18 13 8 8 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 10 7 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -25. -31. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 3. -5. -11. -20. -27. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -10. -25. -37. -52. -65. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.0 53.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.52 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.63 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.08 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 38.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 807.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 11.6% 8.2% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.6% 3.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 9( 25) 9( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 84 84 84 84 82 75 60 48 33 20 DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 84 84 84 82 75 60 48 33 20 DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 81 81 79 72 57 45 30 17 DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 75 73 66 51 39 24 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 66 64 57 42 30 15 DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 64 62 55 40 28 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 84 75 69 65 63 56 41 29 DIS DIS DIS