* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 47 56 54 48 43 37 32 28 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 47 56 54 48 43 37 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 40 45 47 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 20 17 19 30 39 57 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -6 -5 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 254 272 284 269 267 249 245 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.4 24.9 23.7 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 145 142 141 144 108 101 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 116 116 117 123 96 92 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 4 5 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 53 57 64 68 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 10 11 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -22 -37 -37 -43 9 60 108 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -10 -7 -19 0 29 68 72 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 2 0 4 -14 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 132 98 122 162 334 328 326 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.4 34.8 35.3 35.8 37.3 39.5 41.8 44.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.1 75.1 74.6 74.1 71.5 67.8 62.1 55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 10 16 21 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 38 30 27 25 42 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. -2. -13. -21. -30. -37. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 26. 24. 18. 13. 7. 2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.0 75.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.50 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.63 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.53 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 150.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.1% 9.0% 7.7% 6.0% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 5.1% 3.2% 1.8% 0.0% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.1% 4.1% 3.2% 2.0% 2.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 41 47 56 54 48 43 37 32 28 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 43 52 50 44 39 33 28 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 37 46 44 38 33 27 22 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 37 35 29 24 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT