* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 92 88 85 82 77 71 67 60 56 52 51 V (KT) LAND 105 98 92 88 85 82 77 71 67 60 56 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 92 88 85 80 75 68 62 56 50 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 7 6 7 4 5 3 4 6 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 1 5 3 3 3 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 92 100 104 147 154 125 149 178 200 133 198 227 236 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 135 132 130 130 133 132 128 129 131 132 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 41 42 42 40 39 40 38 41 44 48 51 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 22 23 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 40 53 59 57 55 55 45 42 44 51 64 55 53 200 MB DIV -3 -2 -5 1 0 22 28 21 12 29 23 17 3 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 2 2 4 8 8 9 4 11 LAND (KM) 2205 2082 1950 1829 1708 1488 1244 1009 764 518 306 177 158 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 133.8 135.1 136.3 137.5 138.6 140.7 143.0 145.2 147.5 149.9 152.4 155.0 157.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 12 16 14 11 3 12 7 2 3 7 1 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -16. -23. -30. -36. -41. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -5. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -17. -20. -23. -28. -34. -38. -45. -49. -53. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.1 133.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 950.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.35 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##