* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 92 84 77 65 55 50 49 47 45 44 42 V (KT) LAND 105 99 92 84 77 65 55 50 49 47 45 44 42 V (KT) LGEM 105 99 92 85 79 69 61 54 51 48 47 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 16 16 20 19 22 23 14 16 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 5 11 12 5 3 4 2 2 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 240 242 240 237 247 262 251 238 220 218 231 260 245 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 129 132 134 137 141 144 146 148 147 147 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 38 36 37 38 38 36 37 36 38 35 33 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 18 18 16 14 13 14 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -7 4 10 9 18 32 49 65 55 51 44 29 200 MB DIV 10 0 -6 16 9 1 1 27 17 -17 -18 -18 -19 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 734 628 524 420 317 130 30 207 343 410 558 776 1035 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.1 18.8 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.8 149.8 150.8 151.8 153.8 155.8 157.8 159.8 162.0 164.4 166.9 169.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 5 7 8 18 25 40 30 32 69 28 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -23. -29. -34. -38. -41. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -8. -9. -10. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -21. -28. -40. -50. -55. -56. -58. -60. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.3 147.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1077.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##