* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 93 92 90 86 80 67 49 32 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 94 93 92 90 86 80 67 49 32 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 95 94 93 91 85 74 62 51 41 34 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 19 19 17 23 19 24 16 27 18 13 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 9 3 8 8 13 0 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 294 294 287 267 242 229 236 299 323 335 2 67 158 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.6 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.5 23.2 22.7 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 138 134 123 106 102 98 93 92 91 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 122 120 117 108 93 89 84 79 78 79 77 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -53.3 -53.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 38 35 36 36 35 40 41 41 41 44 47 47 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 27 27 29 30 26 20 13 9 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -41 -26 0 -15 -37 -59 -79 -76 -91 -106 -77 -20 200 MB DIV 26 18 15 39 51 46 11 -18 -48 -57 -37 18 10 700-850 TADV 11 1 3 14 25 26 0 19 -6 15 27 35 -69 LAND (KM) 1589 1539 1494 1430 1379 1352 1491 1733 1901 1699 1586 1377 1098 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.9 33.4 34.2 35.0 36.8 38.3 39.0 39.0 39.3 39.9 41.1 42.9 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 51.5 50.5 49.1 47.6 43.6 38.9 34.6 31.2 28.9 27.7 25.6 22.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 17 19 19 15 11 7 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 8 7 10 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -27. -36. -43. -48. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. -3. -11. -21. -27. -34. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -28. -46. -63. -75. -87. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.4 52.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 38.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 897.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/30/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 14( 29) 12( 37) 10( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 94 93 92 90 86 80 67 49 32 20 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 93 92 90 86 80 67 49 32 20 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 88 84 78 65 47 30 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 83 79 73 60 42 25 DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 72 66 53 35 18 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 94 85 79 76 72 66 53 35 18 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 94 93 84 78 74 68 55 37 20 DIS DIS DIS