* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 99 97 95 88 83 76 70 64 56 54 51 V (KT) LAND 105 102 99 97 95 88 83 76 70 64 56 54 51 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 98 94 91 84 78 72 65 59 54 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 11 9 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 3 3 1 3 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 115 110 143 149 127 140 176 161 185 204 204 217 243 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 134 132 133 133 130 127 130 131 133 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 43 45 44 42 43 40 39 40 44 45 47 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 23 24 23 24 22 22 21 18 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 51 61 60 59 65 60 53 54 41 47 48 62 56 200 MB DIV -1 -1 1 -3 8 43 1 12 -9 11 -4 25 25 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 3 4 7 9 5 5 5 LAND (KM) 2091 1977 1862 1741 1620 1376 1149 912 671 421 232 178 174 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.6 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.0 136.1 137.2 138.4 139.5 141.8 143.9 146.1 148.4 151.0 153.8 156.4 158.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 16 12 5 8 15 0 7 5 5 13 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -30. -36. -41. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -17. -22. -29. -35. -41. -49. -51. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.9 135.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 893.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##