* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 83 75 68 60 55 51 53 52 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 100 91 83 75 68 60 55 51 53 52 52 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 79 73 65 58 54 53 53 54 57 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 16 19 15 18 19 13 9 15 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 13 9 3 8 0 3 2 3 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 265 239 252 268 244 245 216 228 215 237 224 213 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 132 134 136 139 143 146 148 148 147 148 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 10 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 36 37 39 38 36 36 37 37 37 33 32 31 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 16 16 14 12 13 12 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -7 2 12 15 18 32 42 60 58 46 39 37 27 200 MB DIV -3 -7 12 18 2 7 12 19 -16 -18 -30 -28 -3 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 0 2 1 4 6 -6 -3 0 -3 3 LAND (KM) 618 514 411 310 214 86 145 338 388 494 687 912 1175 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.2 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 148.9 149.9 150.9 151.9 152.9 154.9 156.9 159.0 161.2 163.4 165.8 168.3 171.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 8 9 15 26 41 43 26 56 42 35 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -32. -35. -37. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -9. -11. -11. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -25. -32. -40. -45. -49. -47. -48. -48. -47. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.3 148.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1008.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.73 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 38.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##