* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 105 101 97 88 79 62 44 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 106 105 101 97 88 79 62 44 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 108 106 103 97 85 72 60 49 41 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 17 19 23 20 17 17 22 25 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 6 4 5 12 13 5 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 284 266 245 238 234 264 316 314 346 19 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.2 24.9 24.5 23.9 23.5 23.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 140 135 132 119 107 103 98 94 92 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 121 118 115 104 93 89 84 81 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -53.4 -53.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 36 35 34 36 41 41 43 43 46 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 30 29 31 30 29 23 17 12 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -28 -1 -15 -20 -50 -56 -72 -77 -96 -85 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 21 53 40 28 22 -13 -31 -52 -47 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 16 26 25 24 12 14 0 14 43 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1572 1518 1473 1422 1390 1434 1630 1872 1792 1570 1393 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.2 33.8 34.7 35.5 37.1 38.1 38.5 38.7 39.2 40.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.5 50.3 49.1 47.4 45.7 41.5 37.0 33.1 29.9 27.4 25.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 16 17 18 17 14 11 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 5 9 6 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -25. -36. -46. -54. -60. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -1. 0. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -9. -17. -24. -31. -32. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -4. -8. -17. -26. -43. -61. -79. -92. -94. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 32.6 51.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1009.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/31/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 20( 57) 11( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 106 105 101 97 88 79 62 44 26 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 103 99 95 86 77 60 42 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 97 93 84 75 58 40 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 91 82 73 56 38 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 77 68 51 33 15 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 106 97 91 88 81 72 55 37 19 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 106 105 96 90 86 77 60 42 24 DIS DIS DIS