* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 39 45 52 48 39 30 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 39 45 52 48 39 30 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 38 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 27 33 42 64 73 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -5 -5 -1 -10 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 283 271 268 271 260 265 265 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.5 26.4 23.2 18.0 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 142 147 123 99 79 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 119 120 127 112 91 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 57 59 62 68 68 63 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 5 10 13 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -45 -37 -27 3 29 20 22 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -13 0 18 12 54 53 29 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 4 9 5 13 32 41 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 155 182 227 327 392 443 397 301 615 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 34.9 35.4 36.3 37.1 39.4 42.2 44.2 45.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.7 74.1 73.4 72.1 70.9 66.1 58.5 51.6 45.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 11 13 17 27 29 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 39 33 36 46 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 3. -9. -25. -37. -50. -61. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 8. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 18. 9. 0. -10. -17. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.4 74.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.57 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 120.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 11.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.9% 3.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.9% 3.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/31/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 36 39 45 52 48 39 30 20 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 43 50 46 37 28 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 44 40 31 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 36 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT