* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 79 73 68 57 54 49 50 50 52 52 53 V (KT) LAND 95 87 79 73 68 57 54 49 50 50 52 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 77 72 63 57 54 54 56 60 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 21 17 17 12 17 10 13 6 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 9 2 9 4 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 256 244 249 260 248 256 212 217 209 214 266 277 291 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 134 136 137 141 145 147 148 149 151 154 153 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 34 36 35 34 35 36 36 37 37 32 28 25 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 17 14 13 11 11 11 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 11 19 25 31 64 67 62 45 44 40 15 200 MB DIV -6 3 0 2 16 4 42 20 -5 -14 -15 -9 -11 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 2 3 3 0 -4 1 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 524 421 319 226 145 69 271 412 465 665 1002 1266 1473 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.0 18.1 18.5 18.8 18.8 19.2 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.8 151.8 152.8 153.7 156.0 158.2 160.2 162.3 165.2 168.8 171.6 173.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 10 11 10 10 12 15 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 9 14 19 31 55 28 33 62 24 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -22. -27. -38. -41. -46. -45. -45. -43. -43. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.3 149.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1013.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##