* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 102 99 95 86 76 60 39 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 104 102 99 95 86 76 60 39 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 105 103 98 92 80 68 57 46 38 33 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 20 19 12 19 12 24 21 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 10 6 2 10 9 17 0 5 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 271 248 246 241 242 301 297 336 354 41 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.9 25.4 24.8 24.1 23.6 23.2 22.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 135 132 126 112 106 100 96 94 91 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 120 118 116 111 99 92 86 83 82 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 34 35 39 42 42 41 44 46 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 31 31 28 27 21 14 10 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 1 -7 -16 -30 -58 -60 -64 -83 -95 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 43 49 43 29 19 -9 -49 -41 -46 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 16 26 29 28 16 17 -3 7 17 42 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1526 1464 1414 1384 1377 1517 1766 1905 1651 1387 1076 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.9 34.6 35.5 36.3 37.5 38.3 38.7 38.9 39.8 41.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.6 49.3 47.9 46.0 44.1 39.5 34.8 31.2 28.3 25.3 22.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 16 18 18 19 16 13 12 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 9 7 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -27. -38. -48. -56. -61. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -10. -21. -26. -34. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -19. -29. -45. -66. -80. -92. -94. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 33.1 50.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 995.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/31/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 24( 45) 17( 54) 10( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 102 99 95 86 76 60 39 25 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 102 99 95 86 76 60 39 25 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 94 85 75 59 38 24 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 91 82 72 56 35 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 77 67 51 30 16 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 80 70 54 33 19 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 104 102 93 87 83 73 57 36 22 DIS DIS DIS